In just five weeks, U.S. crude has ripped more than 50% higher. Brent - the global benchmark - has outpaced it, gaining north of 55%.
And the people who actually move oil for a living are saying prices still don't tell the full story.
When President Trump said on March 11 that the Iran conflict could wrap up "very soon," markets briefly exhaled. That was three weeks ago.
Now the picture looks very different. According to The Washington Post, military planners at the Pentagon have drawn up a timeline for ground raids inside Iran that could stretch on for weeks. Thousands of additional American troops and Marines are already en route to the region.
This wouldn't be a full invasion. Officials described something more surgical - elite commando units working alongside ground troops to strike specific targets.
Then Trump added fuel to the fire over the weekend. He told the Financial Times he wants to seize Iranian oil assets, including Kharg Island - one of the largest crude export terminals on the planet.
For investors watching crude prices, that combination of headlines is hard to ignore.
Here's what the oil industry is focused on - and what most investors are not.
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of all the oil traded globally every single day. The Iran conflict has turned that shipping lane into a bottleneck, and the people running energy companies say the damage is already bigger than what markets have priced in.
Their warning is blunt: without the Strait back open before mid-April, the supply picture gets dramatically worse from here.
That's not a vague timeline. It's roughly two weeks away.
Companies across industries - from airlines to shipping firms to postal services - are already making plans for a world where high crude prices stick around for months. That kind of preparation tells you what the private sector actually believes about how long this lasts.
Stocks had another rough week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finished in the red again, and futures dropped further Sunday night after the ground operation reports broke.
Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Monday morning. At this point, investors look exhausted by the nonstop flow of war news - every headline lands, but none of them bring resolution.
The mid-April window on the Strait of Hormuz is the number to circle. If that shipping lane stays blocked past the deadline oil executives have drawn, the supply crunch moves from bad to structural.
Five weeks ago, crude was 50% cheaper. The industry is betting it doesn't go back.
