Oil stopped going up on Wednesday. That's not the same as coming down.

What Happened to Prices

After spiking more than 10% in the two days following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, crude prices took a pause. Brent crude, the international benchmark, finished Wednesday unchanged at $81.40 per barrel — its highest level since January 2025, but no longer climbing. U.S. crude edged up just 0.1% to around $74.66. Natural gas futures in the U.S. actually fell 4.3%, reversing the prior day's gains, after a New York Times report that Iranian operatives had reached out through back channels to discuss terms for ending the conflict.

John Canavan of Oxford Economics credited Trump's pledge to use the Navy to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz with helping steady energy prices and giving other markets room to stabilize.

Why "Stabilized" Isn't "Fixed"

The Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of the world's oil supply. Tanker transits through the strait dropped from an average of 24 per day to just four on Sunday — and three of those were Iran-flagged. Euronews reported that around 200 crude and product tankers are effectively stranded in the Gulf.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 oil price forecast by $10, now expecting Brent to average $76 per barrel — and warned prices could reach $100 if Hormuz disruptions stretch to five weeks. Mizuho Bank was blunter: Trump's naval escort promise "mitigates but does not eliminate" the upside risks, and higher shipping insurance alone could add $5 to $15 per barrel regardless.

What This Means at the Pump

AAA reported gasoline prices jumped roughly 9 cents Wednesday to nearly $3.20 a gallon — even on the day oil "stabilized." Diesel futures are up nearly 27% this week. The relief markets felt Wednesday was real, but it came from hope that the war ends quickly. If it doesn't, oil analysts' worst-case scenarios start looking less hypothetical.