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Options Traders Just Made A Big Bet That Nvidia Returns To Record Highs

Published Apr 29, 2026
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Summary:
  • Call volume on Nvidia was more than double put volume Tuesday, with $648 million of $818 million spent on calls.
  • Traders are pricing in a 10%+ move in NVDA by late May, when earnings hit.
  • One large bet wagers Nvidia hits $260 by March 2027, 21% above current levels.

Nvidia dropped Tuesday on a Wall Street Journal report questioning OpenAI's growth targets, and options traders saw a sale.

Bullish bets on Nvidia returning to all-time highs piled in fast - and they're sized big.

What Happened

Nvidia (NVDA -0.26%) shares slipped Tuesday after the WSJ report raised concerns about OpenAI's revenue path, which dragged down the entire AI complex, including chip stocks tracked by the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH +0.81%).

Until Tuesday, Nvidia options had been cheaper to trade than the SMH ETF, since Nvidia had spent most of the past year stuck in a tight range that kept the cost of betting on it low. That changed today. Implied volatility - Wall Street's measure of expected price swings - jumped along with the stock as traders piled in.

The Numbers

Call volume on Nvidia was more than double put volume Tuesday. Calls give buyers the right to buy shares at a set price, while puts give them the right to sell.

Of $818 million spent on Nvidia options, $648 million went to calls, according to SpotGamma data. That's about 79% on the bullish side.

Traders are now pricing in a move of more than 10% in Nvidia by the end of May, based on the at-the-money straddle expiring May 29 - a week after Nvidia reports earnings.

One Big Bet

The biggest trades weren't outright buys. They were spreads, which are combinations of buying and selling calls.

One trader bought a 200/260 call spread that expires next March, which is a bet Nvidia hits $260 by March 2027. Tuesday's close was $212.62, so the wager pays off if Nvidia rises 21% over the next 11 months.

Why This Bet Is Different

Other AI names have seen wilder options activity, but Nvidia traders are taking a more measured approach.

The spread structure caps both the gain and the loss, which is what large traders use when they want directional exposure without paying full premium for a long-dated call.

What To Watch

Earnings drop around May 22. The straddle pricing says the market expects a move bigger than usual, while the spread bet says some traders think the bigger move comes later. Either way, the sleepy stretch in Nvidia options just ended.

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