For the first time in years, homebuyers were starting to see a number that began with a 5. That window may already be closing.
Freddie Mac's most recent weekly survey, released February 26, put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 5.98% — the lowest reading since September 2022. Zillow's marketplace data had rates even lower, averaging 5.87% as of Tuesday. Bankrate's data put the 30-year average at 6.04%, just barely above the threshold.
The progress was real. Rates averaged 6.18% for the first two months of 2026 — and were above 7% for the same period in 2025. Six Federal Reserve rate cuts totaling 1.75 percentage points over the past year had slowly worked their way through the mortgage market.
Mortgage rates don't follow the Fed directly — they track the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves with inflation expectations. When oil prices surge, inflation fears rise, Treasury yields jump, and mortgage rates follow.
That's exactly what's happening now. Yahoo Finance reported that the 10-year Treasury yield is climbing again as the Iran conflict stokes inflation fears and pushes investors to price out near-term Fed rate cuts. Zillow's 30-year rate ticked up six basis points on Tuesday alone. The Mortgage Reports noted that rising crude oil prices are signaling "inflationary pressure ahead" that could keep mortgage rates elevated.
The Fed meets March 17–18. Before that, the March 11 CPI inflation report will set the tone. If energy prices stay elevated and inflation re-accelerates, the Fed is likely to hold rates steady — or push the next cut further out.
CBS News cited economist Mark Schweitzer projecting a range of 5.9% to 6.3% for the 30-year rate through March. That lower end is only reachable if inflation cools — which gets harder with oil above $80 a barrel.
Buyers who were waiting for a sub-6% rate may have just watched their best chance slip away.
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