The National Bank of Hungary did exactly what everyone expected on July 21. All 23 economists polled by Bloomberg saw it coming.
The forint has been on a roll this year. Before the July cut, it had gained 6.1% against the euro. Investors piled into forint assets after the April election, which brought in a new prime minister, Peter Magyar, and ended Viktor Orban's long run in power.
The new administration's commitment to adopting the euro has further buoyed the forint and reduced yields on sovereign bonds. That has made the central bank's job easier. When the currency is strong, imported goods cost less and inflation stays down, which gives the bank more room to cut.
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The political shift in April has been a key driver of this currency strength. The new government's pro-euro stance and focus on fiscal discipline have boosted investor confidence, allowing the central bank to ease policy despite global uncertainties. However, the forint is not invincible.
It slipped 0.2% against the euro right after Governor Mihaly Varga's comments on July 21. It has also dropped 1.9% since last month's rate cut.
Because Hungary is land‑locked and brings in almost all of its oil and natural gas from abroad, the forint is sensitive to fluctuations in energy costs. Varga stated, "The central bank doesn't have an exchange‑rate target, and I don't regard the forint as too strong or too weak." A stable currency is in "everybody's interest," he added.
The shift in political leadership has been dramatic. Peter Magyar's victory in April ended Viktor Orban's long tenure, ushering in a government committed to eventual euro adoption. This policy direction has helped stabilize the forint and reduced risk premiums on Hungarian bonds, giving the central bank more flexibility to cut rates. However, the bank must remain vigilant given Hungary's vulnerability to external shocks, particularly energy price swings.
The central bank has already telegraphed its next move. Varga told reporters in Budapest, "We will decide whether this interest rate cut cycle can continue or not when the next inflation forecasts are published." "We'll come back to this question in September."
Budapest‑based analyst Zoltan Varga of Equilor Zrt. commented that the central bank "didn't back down." Capital Economics Ltd.'s senior economist Liam Peach noted that "the backdrop has remained fairly supportive to easing."
The phased removal of state price controls was consistently offset by the forint's appreciation after Magyar's victory, along with lower energy costs and subdued import price inflation.
Despite the favorable inflation outlook, the central bank must remain cautious. Hungary's heavy reliance on energy imports leaves the forint exposed to geopolitical shocks. The new government's euro‑adoption pledge provides support, but the timeline remains uncertain.
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