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Fewer people are looking to buy homes in the U.K. right now. That part isn't surprising - mortgage rates have been creeping up, and global uncertainty isn't helping.
What is surprising: the market hasn't fallen apart. And the reason comes down to who's still buying.
A growing share of U.K. home sales are being driven by people who don't care what mortgage rates do. About a quarter of all transactions are cash deals - no lender, no rate sensitivity, no problem.
On top of that, many homeowners who are moving already locked in their borrowing before rates jumped. They're pressing ahead because the hard part - getting approved - is already done.
It's like a car running low on fuel but coasting downhill. The momentum is real, but it's not sustainable without a refill.
Zoopla's latest data paints a clear picture: inquiries from potential buyers fell 13% over the past year. Completed sales agreements slipped 2%. But the number of homes listed for sale actually grew by 6% - meaning sellers still want to move, even if buyers are harder to find.
Not every region is struggling equally. Northern Ireland posted the strongest price gains in the country - up 7.2% over the past year. Scotland rose 2.6%. The North West of England climbed 3.5%.
London and the South East, on the other hand, both saw prices dip by 0.2%. The pattern is familiar: cheaper areas are growing faster because there's still room for prices to run. The expensive markets? They've hit a ceiling that higher borrowing costs only reinforce.
Overall, UK home values are still rising - just barely. Annual growth sits at 1.3% nationally.
Swap rates - the wholesale interest rates that banks pay to fund home loans - have been climbing. That's forced banks to pull some of their best deals and reprice others higher.
The timing is rough. Global tension tied to the Middle East conflict has added uncertainty to financial markets, and that's feeding through to how lenders price risk.
Richard Donnell, who leads research at Zoopla, said the market is still moving but leaning harder on a narrower group of committed purchasers. Some early-stage shoppers are choosing to wait things out.
The U.K. housing market isn't crashing. But it's becoming a two-speed system - one group of buyers pushing ahead regardless of rates, and another group parked on the sidelines waiting for conditions to improve.
If swap rates keep climbing, that second group only gets bigger. And the first group can only carry the market for so long.
