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The housing market has been a seller's world since the pandemic. That's starting to crack.
A new analysis from Realtor.com projects that home prices will fall in 22 of the 100 largest U.S. metro areas this year.
Most of the drops are concentrated in two regions - the Southeast and the West. And Florida is getting hit the hardest.
Seven of the eight largest metro areas in Florida are expected to see price drops. The only exception is Miami.
Cape Coral and Fort Lauderdale top the list with a projected decline of 10.2%. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton follows at 8.9%.
These are markets that saw massive price surges during the pandemic, fueled by low rates and remote work.
Jake Krimmel, a senior economist at Realtor.com, said the projected declines reflect demand "continuing to come back down to earth" after the COVID-era frenzy.
Prices in the other 78 largest metro areas are still expected to rise - but not by much. The median gain is projected at 4%.
Mortgage rates should average around 6.3% this year, down from 6.6% in 2025. That small drop, combined with wage growth, is expected to bring more buyers into the market.
Existing-home sales are projected to hit 4.13 million in 2026 - a small bump from 2025's 4.07 million. Zillow is slightly more optimistic, forecasting 4.3 million sales.
The Realtor.com analysis calls 2026 the "most balanced housing market" since the pandemic. Neither buyers nor sellers will have a clear upper hand.
For investors watching real estate, the story is regional. Florida markets that boomed the hardest during COVID are giving back the most.
Cities in the Northeast and Midwest still have tight inventory and rising prices.
The Iran war adds a wildcard. Higher oil prices push up inflation, and inflation keeps mortgage rates high. A sustained conflict could erase any rate relief buyers were counting on this year.
