March was brutal for gold. The metal shed more than a tenth of its value as the Iran war drove energy costs up, fed inflation fears, and killed off hopes for Fed rate cuts.
Then the ceasefire talk started.
The Bounce
Wednesday marked gold's fourth winning day in a row, with spot prices reaching $4,784.22 per ounce - the best level in nearly two weeks. On the futures side, prices settled at $4,813.10 - a 2.9% gain.
Two things pushed prices higher. The dollar weakened for a second straight day, which makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies. And headlines about a possible end to the Iran conflict sent investors piling into riskier bets - while also lifting gold.
President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's president had requested a ceasefire. Iran's foreign ministry shot that down, calling it baseless. Axios separately reported that ceasefire talks are happening behind the scenes.
Trump is set to speak to the nation late Wednesday night.
The $5,000 Question
Bob Haberkorn, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said gold could clear $5,000 per ounce again if the conflict winds down. His logic: peace brings lower oil prices, cooler inflation, and a Fed that finally has room to cut rates.
That matters because gold doesn't pay interest. When rates drop, holding the metal looks better compared to bonds or savings accounts - which is exactly why rate-cut bets drove gold above $5,000 earlier this year.
IG analyst Tony Sycamore pointed out that peace isn't a straightforward win for gold, though. A lasting deal would pull the rug out from under the safety trade - the fear-driven buying that helped push gold above $5,000 before March's sell-off. But cheaper oil feeding into lower inflation could bring rate cuts back onto the table, supporting gold through a completely different path.
Worth Watching
The jobs picture is still holding up. Private payrolls grew at a steady pace in March, according to ADP. Retail spending also came in solid for February - though rising gas prices could start squeezing shoppers in the months ahead.
Other metals caught a bid too. Silver picked up 1.2% to finish at $76.03. Platinum added 1.6%, landing at $1,979.30, while palladium rose 1.3% to $1,495.95.
Gold's next big move depends on the Middle East and whether the Fed gets enough breathing room to start cutting. March burned investors who bet wrong. The next swing could be just as fast.
