Cash is leaving emerging markets right now. The trigger isn't anything local - U.S. bonds are just paying more.
When the 10-year Treasury yield jumps near 4.6%, investors pull cash back home. That's what hit Asia on Wednesday and pushed the broad emerging-market index to a two-week low.
The global bond selloff from the day before hit Asia hardest, with South Korean and Taiwanese tech stocks leading the slide. They make up a big chunk of the emerging-market index, so when they fall, the whole basket goes down.
Samsung Electronics took the biggest single hit, falling as much as 4.4% after talks with its workers' union broke down before a planned strike on Thursday. Samsung and SK Hynix together make up over 40% of the KOSPI, so when Samsung sells off, the whole index goes with it.
Currencies got hit just as hard. The Indian rupee dropped to a new record low, forcing India's central bank to step in, and Indonesia's central bank did the same with the rupiah while traders started betting on a rate hike from South Africa.
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Two forces are squeezing emerging markets at once. The biggest is higher U.S. yields, which strengthen the dollar and drag everything else down.
A hot U.S. inflation report this month pushed the odds of a December Fed rate hike to roughly 30%, and oil is piling on. Brent crude is sitting near $110 a barrel as tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz simmer with no clear deal in sight.
For most emerging economies, expensive oil is a direct hit to their import bill, since they buy fuel in dollars. On top of that, Japan's 30-year bond yield is at its highest level in decades, pulling Japanese savings home and lifting borrowing costs everywhere else.
It's like a tide pulling out - central banks can pile sandbags, but the water keeps going.
Emerging-market stocks just posted their worst week since early March, with the Hungarian forint falling 3.4%, the Brazilian real 3.3%, and the Chilean peso 2.1% in the past five days. South Korea's KOSPI dropped more than 6% in last Friday's session alone.
The pattern: Investors are pulling money out and parking it in U.S. assets, and higher yields plus a stronger dollar is a tough combo for any country that needs foreign capital.
Watch the Fed's December meeting. The next U.S. inflation print and any new comments from Fed officials will set the tone for emerging markets into year-end.
Until the Fed signals it's done holding rates steady, every U.S. yield uptick will keep this trade moving.
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