The Dubai real estate market is telling two very different stories at once.
At the top end, business is booming. Top builder Emaar Properties just posted record sales and a 35% jump in first-quarter profit.
Founder Mohamed Alabbar said the print shows the UAE's strength even with a war next door.
Lower down the ladder, the picture looks much weaker.
Emaar's Q1 profit hit 5 billion dirhams, or about $1.36 billion, up from 3.7 billion dirhams a year ago.
The firm also posted record sales for the quarter. State backing keeps getting stronger too.
Dubai Holding, the fund owned by Dubai's ruler, just bought a 22% stake in Emaar from the Investment Corporation of Dubai. That lifts its total stake to almost 30%, making it the biggest owner.
Smaller sellers, though, are pulling back.
One in 10 Dubai home sellers has cut their asking price since the Iran war began, per data from LuxuryPriceDrops.com cited by AGBI. Some cuts are as steep as 50%.
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The price cuts have not hit Emaar's flagship towers. They have hit a different slice of the market.
About $463 million has been wiped off the price of more than 2,800 homes so far.
The steepest cuts are in off-plan units - homes that have not been built yet - and in newer parts of town.
That gap matters for investors. Marquee names like Emaar are still drawing buyers and state money, while smaller projects are where the war fear shows up.
Two things are propping up Dubai's high end.
First, rich buyers from Asia, Europe, and the Gulf are still moving in.
Second, the state keeps buying stakes in the biggest names. Dubai Holding now owns almost a third of Emaar.
That kind of state backing is hard to find anywhere else in the world.
Alabbar said the war noise has made long-term markets like the UAE more appealing. The numbers, for Emaar at least, back him up.
Real estate is a giant part of the UAE economy. The sector helped pull the country through past oil dips. State-backed firms like Emaar are at the core of that story.
For investors, the takeaway is clear. The top of the Dubai market and the rest of it are pulling apart.
Names like Emaar tend to win in shaky times. State backing makes it safer to buy into them.
The rest of the market trades with the news cycle.
The split between top builders and smaller sellers will keep getting wider if the Iran war drags on. Dubai's tourism and flight traffic have already taken a hit.
Emaar's Q1 print does not show that strain yet.
If the war ends fast, the cheaper end of the market should bounce back fast.
If it does not, the gap between top builders and the rest will keep growing.
For now, Emaar is winning both sides of the bet.
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