For months, the ECB has been the calm one. It held rates while other big central banks moved. The Iran war is about to change that.
Peter Kazimir is on the ECB's top board. He is from Slovakia, and he sits on the rate-setting body that runs the euro.
He said Monday in an op-ed that "policy tightening in June is all but inevitable."
He warned the euro zone could face a long stretch of rising prices and slower growth - the kind of mix that hits a central bank from both sides.
That mix is called stagflation. It means high prices and weak growth at once. For a central bank, that is the worst kind of setup.
The trigger is the energy shock from the Iran war. Oil and gas prices are now spreading through the wider economy, with Kazimir saying the ECB cannot wait.
He said the bank is meeting this from "a position of stability." The point: years of taming prices give the ECB room to act now.
Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel said the same thing last Friday. He said a hike will be needed if growth and prices do not turn.
Lithuania's Gediminas Simkus was less sure, saying the call will hang on the data and the war. If the war cools off, he said, the ECB could think differently.
France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau took a middle line. He said the ECB must be ready to act if prices spread past the oil shock.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos asked for "a cool head" while the bank waits for new June numbers.
Three other ECB officials weighed in on Monday too. Most of them will leave their posts before the June meeting takes place.
A quarter-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting is the call most folks expect. Markets are pricing in two more moves before the year is out.
The ECB's own poll of pro forecasters lines up with that. They see prices up 2.7% this year, then easing back to 2.1% in 2027 and 2% in 2028.
The view from the poll: the energy spike is short-term, but the response has to be real.
A second ECB poll said the spread from high energy costs may be slow this time. It also warned things could get worse if the fighting drags on.
For investors, the read is clear. A small hike is now the base case for June.
That matters for euro zone stocks, which have run up on the view that the ECB was done hiking. A new round of moves could shake that trade.
It also matters for the euro itself. Hikes tend to lift a currency, with rate spread between the U.S. and the euro zone driving most of the move.
The June 10-11 meeting is now the main event. The ECB will have new numbers in hand and a fuller view of the war's impact.
If oil and gas prices stay high, the hike happens. If the war cools, the math changes.
Kazimir's wording leaves little room for doubt: the ECB is set to do what it did not want to do.
