Aliko Dangote is worth about $36 billion. His refinery could be worth $50 billion - which is part of why his upcoming IPO is shaping up to be the biggest thing happening on African capital markets this year.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals is targeting a valuation of $40 billion to $50 billion in an IPO planned for later this year, with about 10% of the company on offer.
At the top end, that would raise around $5 billion, making it the largest public offering in African history.
The structure is unusual: rather than listing on a single exchange, the offering is set to trade across multiple African markets at once, including Lagos, Johannesburg, Nairobi, Accra, and other regional West African bourses.
That would mark the first time the continent has run a coordinated cross-exchange equity listing.
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The Dangote refinery is already the world's largest single-train refinery - one continuous processing line that produces gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Dangote invested more than $19 billion to build it, and the facility hit full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day this past February.
That output alone makes it roughly two-thirds of Nigeria's total functional refining capability.
Higher oil prices, driven in part by the Middle East war, have made refineries far more valuable than they were two years ago, which gives Dangote a strong setup to take the company public.
The proceeds are earmarked for one main thing: more refining capacity. A planned Phase 2 expansion adds a second 750,000 barrel-per-day processing line, pushing total capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028.
If completed on time, that would make the Dangote refinery the largest refinery on Earth, bigger than the current title holder in India and bigger than any single complex on the US Gulf Coast.
Dangote is also lining up IPOs for his cement and fertilizer arms.
A $50 billion valuation would mean the refinery is worth more than its founder, which isn't entirely surprising given the capital intensity of the business.
Oil refineries are slow-build assets that rarely trade publicly in Africa, but this listing would reset what investors think a single industrial business on the continent can be worth.
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