For most of the last 15 years, the safest corners of the market paid almost nothing, and that is no longer the case.
Top one-year CDs are still paying up to 4.20% APY, intermediate bonds are yielding around 4.3%, while short-term Treasuries are well above the rate of inflation. Schwab's 2026 outlook calls for income (not capital gains) to drive most of the returns on fixed assets this year.
Bankrate's editorial team is tracking a 4.20% APY top CD rate from Mountain America Credit Union, with First National Bank of America matching that ceiling on its 3-month to 10-year products.
LendingClub, Bread Savings, E*TRADE, Capital One, and Marcus by Goldman Sachs are all paying between 3.80% and 4.15% APY across different terms. Most of these are FDIC-insured up to $250,000, which means principal is protected if the bank fails.
For comparison, the FDIC's national average for a money market account is 0.57%, so the gap between a top CD and an average savings account is roughly 7x.
Get the news that matters for your money in your inbox every weekday morning - Market Briefs covers it in five minutes, plus a free investing masterclass when you join.
The Charles Schwab fixed-income team expects 2026 returns to come "predominantly from coupon income" rather than from bond prices going up.
Their reasoning is that growth is holding up, inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, and that combination probably keeps yields from falling much further. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was yielding around 4.3% with a 6-year average duration as of early December, which means investors can lock in roughly that yield with intermediate-term exposure.
The team also flagged TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) and municipal bonds as places to find real after-tax yield.
Schwab's base case is two to three more 25-basis-point Fed cuts in 2026, taking the federal funds rate to a 3.0% to 3.5% range.
That call rests on a weaker labor market, with the unemployment rate at 4.4% as of September 2025 while wage growth runs at 3.8% year over year. Inflation has been running above 2% for more than four years, which is why the Fed has moved slowly.
The key line: "We believe 3% is likely to be a floor," per Schwab's outlook.
In English: the 4%-plus yields available today probably are not going to disappear overnight.
The wild card is the 10-year Treasury.
Schwab sees the 10-year yield staying around 3.75%, with a real chance of bouncing back toward 4.5% if Treasury supply keeps growing. That keeps intermediate-term bond income attractive, but it also limits how much price appreciation investors can expect.
For anyone building a fixed-income ladder, that is a useful map.
If you want this kind of read every morning, join 350,000+ investors getting Market Briefs - and grab the free 45-minute investing course as a bonus.
