Summary:
Bitcoin spent most of the spring looking like damaged goods.
It lost roughly half its value during the Iran war. Oil dragged it down. Then the Strait of Hormuz reopened, the ceasefire held, and the whole trade snapped back.
Three things hit at once. A US-Iran ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz reopening for now. And fresh progress on US crypto rules - all inside 48 hours.
US crude oil dropped about 11% to $83.85 a barrel on the news. Bitcoin tends to move with tech stocks when oil spikes. So cheaper oil flipped the script - risk assets ran, and Bitcoin ran with them.
The move forced more than $815M in leveraged crypto bets - mostly shorts, where investors were betting Bitcoin would fall - to close out. That added fuel. $BTC hit $78,384 on April 17 and was still near $76K the next day. Its highest level since the February crash that took it as low as roughly $63K.
Anything tied to a company that holds Bitcoin ran harder than Bitcoin itself.
American Bitcoin ($ABTC) jumped more than 10%. Strategy ($MSTR) ripped higher with it. Coinbase ($COIN) and the miners rallied with them. That's the usual pattern - beaten-down crypto proxies bounce first.
JPMorgan flagged something interesting. Q1 crypto inflows came from basically one buyer. Strategy alone was the driving force, with Michael Saylor acting like the market while retail stayed on the sidelines.
Here's the piece investors might be missing. The White House is moving.
Trump already signed an executive order in March 2025 creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve - a US government Bitcoin stockpile, similar to the oil reserve. But the framework to actually operationalize it has been stuck. This month, White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt said details are coming within two months.
The US already holds around 200,000 BTC in the reserve from past seizures, with broader federal holdings potentially higher. The framework would decide what to do with it.
Think of it like a central bank announcing gold buys. The buyer isn't new. The signal is.
The ceasefire is holding. But Hormuz has only reopened for now. Any flare-up pulls oil back up and $BTC back down.
The bigger signal is that reserve framework. If the two-month timeline holds, the announcement lands right as Strategy keeps buying and retail returns.
$BTC spent two months looking broken. A weekend of headlines put it back within reach of all-time highs.
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