The US is pumping more oil and gas than any country on earth. It won't be enough.

Why America Can't Save the Day

The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly 20 million barrels of oil per day — about 20% of global supply. With tanker traffic effectively halted, that oil isn't moving. Qatar also took its LNG production offline after Iran launched strikes on its neighbors, pulling a huge chunk of global natural gas supply off the market at the same time.

The problem for US exporters isn't willingness — it's capacity. They're already shipping close to their limits. Mathieu Utting, global gas and LNG analyst at Rystad Energy, told Fortune that US exporters will "definitely profit more" from the crisis — but they simply can't increase volumes meaningfully.

Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov put the regional divide plainly: "Europe and Asia rely on imported LNG, so they are affected by the disruption. As the world's largest LNG producer, the US doesn't have the same worry — in fact, it could benefit." Europe's gas benchmark surged 90% in two days. The US benchmark rose, but far less.

The Wildcard That Matters Most

Trump's pledge on March 3 to provide political risk insurance and Navy escorts for tankers through the strait helped cool prices — because expensive or unavailable insurance was a key reason ships were staying away, not just the threat of attack.

But Matt Reed of Foreign Reports warned that Iran has so far been restrained in its attacks on energy infrastructure. If Iran and its proxies go after oil production facilities directly, prices could surge well past $100 a barrel — and there's no easy off-ramp from there.

The US oil benchmark is already up nearly 30% since January. The question is whether it stops here.