The world's food supply is getting squeezed from two directions at once. A powerful weather pattern may develop later this year, while the Iran war is already choking off fertilizer shipments.
Together, they could trigger a food crisis affecting hundreds of millions of people. The math is sobering: 318 million people are already food insecure globally.
El Nino is a warming pattern in the tropical Pacific that shifts weather worldwide.
When it hits, it typically pushes cocoa, food oils, rice, and sugar prices higher by disrupting growing conditions from Southeast Asia to South America. U.S. meteorologists estimate a 1-in-3 chance of a "strong" El Nino forming between October and December.
European models put the probability even higher, with some suggesting a "super El Nino" - an exceptionally powerful version.
Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS, warned: "2026 might produce a super El Nino weather pattern. In that case, drought and limited water supply might be more important than shortages of nitrogen."
About one-third of all seaborne fertilizer trade normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the blockade began on Feb 28, that shipping has virtually stopped.
Fertilizer is to modern farming what gas is to a car - no supply, no growth. This is hitting at the worst possible time as the U.S. planting season begins.
Dawid Heyl, an analyst at investment firm Ninety One, put it bluntly: "I am a lot more concerned about this time around because of the impact on nitrogen, fertilizer production."
The World Food Programme estimates acute hunger could jump by 45 million people if the conflict persists beyond June.
Three signals matter: El Nino formation indicators from October through December, Strait of Hormuz shipping data showing whether fertilizer is flowing again, and global commodity prices for rice, sugar, cocoa, and cooking oils.
If all three move the wrong direction at once, food inflation accelerates fast.
