Colombia just raised rates twice in three months, and now a central banker is saying that wasn't enough.
The policy rate sits at 11.25% with inflation still above target. The April vote to hold was unanimous, but the consensus underneath is already cracking.
The Banco de la Republica hiked rates by 100 basis points in January, taking the benchmark to 10.25%, and then another 100 points in March, pushing it to 11.25%. That puts Colombia near the top of the global rate-tightening league.
The April meeting kept rates steady, but several hawks on the board had already pushed for more while doves wanted cuts to support a fragile recovery.
No member voted against the hold, but Governor Leonardo Villar has openly said that board members do not agree on where rates go next.
The catch: The unanimous vote masked a real fight inside the room.
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Inflation in Colombia is still well above the central bank's 3% target, with finance minister German Avila blaming energy and communications prices rather than the December minimum wage hike that the bank flagged as a risk.
Oil's recent climb made it worse. Avila confirmed that gasoline prices in Colombia would rise starting May 1, which feeds straight into consumer costs across food, transport, and basic goods.
The hawks on the board argue that another hike is the only way to push inflation back to target before it gets stuck.
The doves argue the opposite: keep going higher and the recovery breaks before inflation does.
The bank and the Petro administration have been clashing for months, after the finance minister walked out of the March rate-setting meeting before it ended and publicly disclosed the bank's decision before the governor could announce it.
The Petro side wants rate cuts to get growth moving, while the bank's leadership wants to stay restrictive until inflation falls.
Avila has returned to the table since then. But the dispute over central bank independence has not gone away, and each meeting now looks like a battle over institutional authority as much as a battle over inflation.
The next rate decision lands at the end of June, with the case for another hike gaining ground even after April's unanimous hold.
The next vote may not be a clean sweep.
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