The February inflation report was clean, calm, and almost completely irrelevant.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that consumer prices rose 0.3% in February and 2.4% year over year — both exactly in line with forecasts.
Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in at 2.5% annually. Also in line. Also unchanged from January.
Shelter was the biggest monthly contributor, up 0.2%. Food rose 0.4%. Used cars and auto insurance both declined.
The U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28 — the last day of the reporting period. None of the oil shock shows up here.
J.P. Morgan Private Bank's Joe Seydl called the report "a bit stale at this point." Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli said investors are already looking past it: "People are going to be waiting to see how oil impacts inflation readings over the coming months."
Carson Group's Sonu Varghese put it plainly: "This is the calm before the storm."
Gas prices have risen roughly 58 cents per gallon since the war started, sitting at $3.58 nationally as of Wednesday.
If oil stays elevated, economists at Deutsche Bank estimate headline CPI could climb toward 3.5% by year-end. Airline fares alone — driven by jet fuel costs — could surge as much as 20%.
The Fed meets March 18. No cut is expected. The next realistic window is July or September — and that's assuming the war doesn't drag on.
February's CPI report is a snapshot of a world that no longer exists.
