Moderna fell as much as 25% Thursday after early snippets from its melanoma vaccine program with Merck surfaced, with complete results published later that day after the leak. Merck eased about 1%. The declines came even as the newly detailed numbers looked meaningful for patients and stacked up well against Wall Street expectations.
The individualized shot, intismeran autogene, was tested alongside Merck's immunotherapy Keytruda. Together they cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42% compared with Keytruda alone, and lowered the chance of cancer spreading to distant sites or death by 38%. The companies said roughly 82% of patients on the combo were alive without melanoma returning at two years, versus 70% with Keytruda only. The phase 3 readout is slated for presentation at this weekend's European Society for Medical Oncology meeting.
Analysts said the bar was high going in. "We assert this relative reduction in recurrence/death is clinically meaningful," BMO Capital Markets' Evan Seigerman wrote Thursday, adding that the selloff likely reflected "inflated expectations into the full data release, rather than a true indictment on the efficacy of the combo therapy." UBS called it "overall a strong data set" and said it boosts confidence in upcoming kidney and bladder cancer studies, while suggesting the stock move had more to do with lofty hopes than weak results. Because it is tailored to each patient, manufacturing is complex and can require six weeks. In an interview on CNBC last week, Merck CEO Robert Davis said the company expects to be able to reduce that timeline going forward, which could expand access.
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Expectations have been towering: Moderna shares have surged more than 530% year to date as of Thursday afternoon, while Merck is up nearly 41% this year. The selloff looks more like sentiment meeting a sky high bar than a setback in efficacy.
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