Speaking in Hong Kong to investors, Cathie Wood - known for championing breakthrough technologies - said, "The trend is up, but the cycles are vicious." ARK is sidestepping mainstream memory-chip makers because pricing can drop fast when supply gets ahead of demand. She noted that high-bandwidth memory remains constrained right now, yet warned that incremental Chinese producers could shake up pricing and intensify the industry's swings. "If you get a few more incremental competitors, especially out of China, the volatility will increase," she said.
At the top end of memory and HBM packaging, South Korea's SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co., together with US-based Micron Technology Inc., are the major suppliers. On the rise: state-backed Chinese players such as CXMT Corp., which have quickly expanded DRAM production to capture share. The market's whiplash is showing up in prices too, with SK Hynix and Samsung shares down 51% and 36% from their peaks this year, respectively.
Capacity expansion is what turns a shortage into a glut. Market Briefs covers the memory cycle free every morning.
Wood added that ARK is less drawn to China's tech sector than to other markets, pointing to anti-involution policies that have not fixed deflation or shielded the economy from a deep property slump. She also pushed back on Broadcom Inc. CEO Hock Tan's warning that AI has turned speculative, dismissing bubble fears and saying she expects AI to drive major productivity gains.
If more Chinese capacity comes online, expect choppier pricing in memory chips and bigger swings for companies tied to that cycle. At the same time, Wood's AI view highlights a counterweight: productivity gains could support demand for advanced memory even as competition heats up. The takeaway for everyday investors is simple: this corner of tech may offer opportunity, but it is likely to move fast and hit hard.
Chip pricing depends more on supply decisions than on demand. Get the free Market Briefs daily newsletter and follow it.
