The Forecast

Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast. They project U.S. home prices will rise 1.5% between October 2025 and October 2026.

That's measured by the Zillow Home Value Index.

Heading into 2025, Zillow's 12-month forecast was 2.6%. But many housing markets across the country softened faster than expected. By April 2025, Zillow had cut its 12-month outlook to negative 1.7%.

The Revisions

In late spring, Zillow stopped issuing downward revisions. In August, it revised its 12-month outlook to 0.4%. In September, the forecast increased to 1.2%. In October, Zillow upgraded its outlook to 1.9%.

This month, Zillow revised down its 12-month outlook just a tad to 1.5%.

While Zillow's national forecast is no longer negative, it isn't exactly bullish either.

The Biggest Gainers

Among the 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price increases:

Atlantic City, New Jersey leads at 5.3%. Rockford, Illinois follows at 4.8%. Concord, New Hampshire comes in at 4.6%.

Knoxville, Tennessee and Saginaw, Michigan both project 4.3%. Jacksonville, North Carolina and Kingston, New York both expect 4.2%.

Connecticut metros make a strong showing with New Haven at 4.0%, Hartford at 3.9%, and Norwich at 3.8%.

The Biggest Declines

Louisiana dominates the bottom of the list. Houma leads declines at negative 7.8%. Lake Charles follows at negative 7.3%. New Orleans projects negative 4.7%.

Shreveport, Lafayette, and Alexandria round out Louisiana's weak markets.

Texas sees pressure too. Austin projects negative 2.6%. Corpus Christi expects negative 2.4%.

San Francisco forecasts negative 2.2% price declines.

The Current Situation

U.S. home prices are currently up 0.01% year over year. If Zillow's latest 12-month outlook comes true, it would represent a small acceleration nationally.

The Sunbelt, particularly Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of housing market weakness.

The Buyer's Market

A year ago, six of the nation's 50 largest metros were buyer's markets. This September, buyers have the edge in 15 metros.

The strongest buyer's markets are Miami, New Orleans, Austin, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis. That's due largely to a surge of new construction in those areas in recent years.

The hottest markets for sellers are in the Northeast and Bay Area: Buffalo, Hartford, San Jose, San Francisco, and New York. These places face some of the most stringent land use restrictions.

The Bottom Line

Zillow projects 1.5% national home price growth over the next year, with Atlantic City leading gains at 5.3% while Louisiana markets face the steepest declines, as buyer's markets expand from six to 15 of the nation's 50 largest metros.