UK homes spent the last few months using less power. Electric use is down 7%. Gas use is down 17%.
Their reward: a 13% jump in their energy bill come July. The big driver is gas prices.
UK watchdog Ofgem sets the UK price cap every three months.
The cap is the legal ceiling. It sets what homes can pay for gas and power.
Starting in July, the cap rises about 13.5%. Electric bills are up around 5%. Gas bills jump 24%.
For a typical home, the yearly bill goes from £1,641 (about $2,206) to £1,862. That's the highest since early 2024.
Ofgem CEO Tim Jarvis blamed "continued volatility in global energy markets." He also cited the "ongoing conflict in the Middle East."
About 40% of UK energy accounts are on fixed deals. Those homes are safe from the July hike. Everyone else pays more.
The 13% jump comes after Ofgem cut the cap 7% in the last review.
The cap began in January 2019 under a law meant to stop suppliers from overcharging customers.
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The price hike traces back to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
That strait is a key oil and gas shipping lane.
Since the war broke out, Brent crude is up about 33.5%. June gas futures on the Dutch TTF are up nearly 50%. The TTF is Europe's main gas market.
The UK buys most of its energy from other countries. So when bulk prices spike abroad, they show up on home bills.
That's how inflation seeps in from a war far away.
Even after the July hike, bills will still sit below the 2022 peak. Back then the government capped bills at £2,500 a year after Russia's war on Ukraine.
Cornwall Insight - an energy firm - thinks the cap will rise again in October to £1,899.44. That's another 2% on top of July.
The UK isn't alone in feeling this.
Germany just banned gas stations from raising pump prices more than once a day. Euro zone energy prices jumped 10.8% in April from a year ago.
UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband posted on X that the cap rise is "deeply unwelcome news." He said the main task is to cool the war. That should bring oil and gas prices down.
Homes are paying more for energy even as they use less. The next big data point is Ofgem's October review.
If the war stays hot, the cap could climb higher than that mark.
For now, the Strait of Hormuz is doing more to set UK bills than Ofgem is.
Cooler heads in the Gulf could ease the bill faster than any UK fix.
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