The biggest test of the global art market since the Iran war began starts in New York next week, with about $2 billion in art going up for auction.
Three works could each sell for $100 million on their own.
Christie's is leading with the late media titan S.I. Newhouse Jr.'s collection. The headliner is a 1913 Constantin Brancusi sculpture called "Danaide," with a $100 million estimate.
A large Jackson Pollock drip painting called "Number 7A, 1948" is also estimated at $100 million, coming from the same collection.
Christie's is also selling Mark Rothko's "No. 15 (Two Greens and Red Stripe)" from the late Agnes Gund's collection, with an $80 million estimate.
Sotheby's has its own Rothko headliner with "Brown and Blacks in Reds," from the collection of the late Robert Mnuchin, the former Goldman Sachs partner turned gallerist and father of former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. It carries a $70 million to $100 million estimate.
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The three big auction houses combined are projected to bring in $1.8 billion to $2.6 billion, according to ArtTactic. At $2 billion, the New York week would nearly double last year's total.
More than 20 lots carry estimates of $20 million or more, more than triple what hit that bar last year.
Big collectors like Ken Griffin, Steve Cohen, and Jeff Bezos have watched their fortunes climb in recent years, said Philip Hoffman of the Fine Art Group. "They're sitting on massive amounts of liquidity," he said. "To them, this money is peanuts."
A recent "white glove" sale at Sotheby's London cleared $175 million, with strong bidding across nearly all categories, advisors say.
The unknown is the Middle East, where Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have been on an art spending spree as they build new museums.
The Iran war could push those governments to focus on rebuilding at home instead of buying art abroad. Some dealers think buying continues either way, since Middle East collectors tend to operate in private sales rather than public auctions.
Americans are doing the bulk of the buying right now, and U.S. collectors are flush from recent gains in stocks, tech, and real estate. European bidding has been consistent, while mainland Chinese collectors have been less active this cycle.
The auction houses are using big provenance and big guarantees to lock in the floor on the trophy works. Whether the ceiling actually clears $2 billion is the real test of how strong the rebound is.
Provenance also matters more than ever, with art from famous collections like the Newhouses and Rockefellers carrying ever-higher premiums as new collectors look for validation.
In two weeks we'll know if the rebound that started last fall is real.
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