For the first time since before the pandemic, buyers and sellers are meeting on something close to even ground.
Leading housing economists are calling 2026 the most balanced real estate market in nearly a decade.
That doesn't mean it's easy to buy a home - it means sellers are losing the massive advantage they've held since 2020.
Home sales are expected to climb roughly 14% in 2026, finally breaking above the 4-million-unit floor that's held for the past two years.
Monthly mortgage payments are projected to drop for the first time since 2020. That's a combination of two things - rates easing slightly and incomes growing. Both are giving buyers more room to move.
More sellers are pulling homes off the market rather than accepting lower offers. That's a sign of balance - not every seller is getting what they want, and some are choosing to wait rather than cut their price.
The shift isn't happening evenly. In the South and West, where building policies have allowed more construction, housing markets are clearly moving toward balance.
Inventory is growing and prices are leveling off.
In the Northeast and Midwest, supply still lags behind pre-pandemic norms. Prices continue to rise in those regions, and the market still tilts toward sellers.
Home price growth across the country is expected to come in around 2% - moderate compared to the double-digit gains of 2021 and 2022.
Balance is good news for anyone who's been priced out over the last few years. But the Iran war adds pressure.
Higher oil prices feed into inflation, and inflation keeps mortgage rates from dropping as fast as buyers need them to.
The best-case scenario for buyers is a calm second half of 2026 with rates drifting toward 6% and inventory continuing to build.
The worst case is that war-driven inflation stalls the progress entirely.
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