The Fed just told investors what they wanted to hear: rate cuts still might happen.

March meeting notes released Wednesday showed most officials still expect to cut rates at least once this year. That's the same view they had in December - before the Iran war changed things.

War Made It Complicated

The March meeting was just weeks after the U.S. and Israel hit Iran. Oil had shot up. Price worries were rising. The Fed was stuck in the middle - worried about costs going up and jobs slowing at the same time.

Officials said they'd need to stay ready to move. Some warned higher oil costs could hurt spending and tighten money. Others worried the war could push prices up for longer.

The committee voted 11-1 to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75%.

Then the Ceasefire Landed

Hours after the notes came out, markets were pricing in something new. The ceasefire sent oil down below $100 and gave traders hope for easier money.

Rate-cut odds for December jumped to 43%, up from 14% a week ago, per CME's FedWatch tool. A Dallas Fed study found that prices could improve fast if the Strait of Hormuz opens again.

What to Watch

The Fed is reading the same ceasefire news everyone sees. If oil stays below $100 and the truce holds, cuts look more likely. If the deal breaks, they're back to square one.

GDP grew just 0.7% in Q4 2025. It's tracking 1.3% for Q1 2026. The economy needs help.