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The spring home buying season looks weak, and forecasters can't agree on where rates head. That makes planning impossible.
The 30-year mortgage rate was 6.44% on March 25 - near the highest level since mid-2025. Everyone expected rates to fall all year. Instead they're flat or rising. That flips the whole plan for spring buyers.
The Mortgage Bankers group says rates stay above 6% all year. That's grim - it means no help comes for buyers.
Fannie Mae is hopeful: rates drop to 5.7% by year-end. That's much better. But that forecast came before the recent jump in rates from the Iran fight.
Neither group built serious war risk into their plans. They guessed oil might hit $90-100. Instead it's racing toward $115, and price forecasts keep jumping. Both forecasts are old news.
If fighting stops and oil falls, Fannie Mae's 5.7% forecast makes sense. If war gets worse and oil tops $120, the Bankers' bleak "6% all year" becomes real. It all depends on Iran.
Watch the 10-year Treasury yield - it drives mortgage rates most. If the Strait opens and oil falls, yields drop and mortgage rates follow.
If war escalates and oil spikes, yields jump and rates could hit 6.6-6.7%. Spring buying closes by June - just weeks for things to improve.
If they don't, April and May sales will be weak, which pushes home prices down later in summer.
