One Truth Social post sent oil prices lower Tuesday morning, but oil is still trading near $110 a barrel and still up more than 54% since the Iran war began in late February. A postponed strike isn't a ceasefire.
The Pullback
Brent crude futures for July delivery fell more than 1% Tuesday morning to trade at $110.69 a barrel. WTI - the U.S. benchmark - slipped 0.41% to $108.21.
The pullback erased a small slice of Monday's gains, when Brent settled up 2.6% and WTI rose 3.1%. Tuesday's dip was the first break in what had been six straight up days out of seven for both contracts.
The trigger was Trump's Monday Truth Social post saying he'd shelved a "scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow" after pressure from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
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A Pause, Not Peace
This isn't the end of the conflict, since a renewed strike would effectively kill the fragile April 8 ceasefire.
Trump told reporters at a White House event Monday that "we were getting ready to do a very major attack tomorrow." He added he put it off "for a little while, hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for a little while" because "we've had very big discussions with Iran."
In English: military action is still on the table, and Axios reported Trump had been weighing renewed strikes after Iran's latest proposal in talks fell short.
Oil Is Still Up More Than 54% Since Late February
The bigger story is what hasn't changed, with oil still up roughly 54% since late February and ING analysts saying markets are still pricing in long-running Middle East supply disruption.
Recent Trump-Xi talks didn't produce the kind of Chinese-brokered progress some had hoped for. Some shipping is moving again through the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow choke point that handles roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil.
ING noted that several crude tankers and a Vietnamese-bound Iraqi shipment got through, but flows remain well below normal and could get worse fast.
The read: Traders are sitting with a heavy bid for oil because the underlying problem is unresolved, and a delayed strike doesn't get oil back to $80.
What To Watch
The next clue comes from the talks themselves. Trump suggested fresh conversations with Iran are happening, and if those produce a real diplomatic breakthrough, oil could finally start to ease.
If they fall apart and the postponed strike is back on the table, that 1% Tuesday dip flips fast.
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