This year's college grads have a number in their head, and it's about $80,000.
The real number, according to a Clever survey, is $56,153. That's a gap of nearly $24,000 between what new grads expect and what they'll actually see in their first paycheck.
More than 3 million new graduates are entering the workforce this year, mostly betting that a college degree still pays off.
The job market for new grads is one of the toughest in years, with AI replacing entry-level roles at big employers and inflation pushing companies to pause hires.
Engineering grads, for example, expected $92,452 starting salaries but will come in nearly 20% lower.
The disconnect doesn't fade with experience either. Ten years out of school this year's grads expect to be pulling in $144,889, while actual midcareer pay sits closer to $95,521, per Clever.
For all the gloom, the actual data isn't bad.
Joblessness for grads with a bachelor's is running below 4%, and the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) says hiring plans for the Class of 2026 are running 5.6% above last year's class.
"Those employers who are increasing cite company growth and the commitment to succession planning as their main reasons," said Andrea Koncz, NACE's senior research manager.
Average starting pay also climbed 5.5% to $68,873, per NACE. Computer science majors are the top earners at $81,535, up nearly 7% year over year, with engineering grads coming in second at $81,198.
Pay at small and mid-sized businesses is rising too, jumping to an average of $65,734 for the Class of 2026, up from $62,801 a year ago, per payroll provider Gusto.
The biggest shift isn't financial. It's psychological.
Two out of three new grads told Monster's State of the Graduate report they would take less pay if it meant more job security, which is a generational mindset shift, not a one-year data point.
Roughly half of parents are now footing the bill on at least some essentials for their adult kids, including rent, groceries, and utilities. That's the highest share Savings.com has ever measured.
Hiring still depends on where you live and what you study. Kyle Fox, who runs Alopex ID, a marketing agency in Palmer, Alaska, said his entry-level pay starts around $45,000 and tops out near $70,000 after a few years, with new hires "generally happy to have a job." Up there, he said, jobs in media are few and far between.
The cost of getting it wrong is steeper than ever, with student loan balances climbing and tuition still rising. New grads chasing the wrong number can spend years trying to close the gap.
For investors watching the consumer side, the takeaway is twofold: starting wages are higher than last year, but lifestyle inflation is hitting the next generation later than usual.
The grads expect $80K. Their parents are still buying groceries.
