Oil is up 45% since the U.S. and Israel started strikes on Iran in late February.
Brent crude is back above $106 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world's oil used to move, has been shut for nearly three months.
Now Iran says it's "reviewing" Trump's latest offer.
What Tehran And Washington Are Saying
Iran's Foreign Ministry said Thursday it is reviewing the latest U.S. offer. Pakistan is handling the talks between the two sides.
Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir is on his way to Tehran for the next round of talks. Iran's ISNA news agency reported the trip.
Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday that he is willing to wait "a few days" for the right answers. He also said he came an hour from new strikes on Tuesday before backing off.
That's the public posture. The price action says markets don't think a deal is close.
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What The Oil Tape Is Telling You
Brent crude rose 1.9% to $106.92 per barrel in London afternoon trading. WTI rose 2.4% to $100.59.
Both are up about 45% since strikes started Feb. 28. Hormuz is the reason.
About 20% of the world's oil and natural gas used to move through that strait. Shipping has been nearly halted since the war began.
Iran has the blockade in place. The U.S. is blocking Iran's own ports in return.
Investors can read the move through oil futures pricing, which acts as a real-time vote on whether the talks survive. Right now, the curve isn't pricing in a deal.
What Could Move The Tape
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Wednesday it will push the conflict "beyond the region" if Washington and Israel hit Iran again. That threat has its own meaning for oil traders.
The 14-point framework Iran has been talking against is still on the table. Pakistan is still in the middle of it.
A quick deal would crater Brent. A new round of U.S. strikes would push it higher. Either move would land hard on inflation in the U.S. and Europe.
Why The Talks Keep Stalling
Iran wants its ports unblocked. The U.S. wants Iran to lift the Hormuz blockade.
Neither side has moved first since late February. Trump has set and missed deadlines before, while Iran has held the strait closed through every round.
The 14-point framework gives both sides cover to keep talking without giving in. That's why oil hasn't broken either way for weeks.
Worth Noting
Markets will move sharp either way. The war is priced in. A deal is not.
Brent at $107 is the tape's answer to whether peace is close.
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