Goldman Sachs is no longer betting on a quick fix in the Gulf.
The bank just bumped its end-of-2026 Brent oil forecast from $80 a barrel to $90, a 12.5% jump that says one thing clearly. The war is not winding down on Wall Street's timeline.
In a note out Monday, Goldman said it now sees Gulf exports starting to come back online only by the end of June. That's months later than its previous read.
Global oil inventories are getting drawn down at a record clip in April - between 11 and 12 million barrels a day. That's the kind of drop that doesn't get fixed by a single breakthrough headline.
Brent's June futures climbed about 1% Monday to roughly $106.55 a barrel, while WTI for June added 0.88% to $95.23.
The catch: even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the near term, Goldman expects supply to take time to ramp back up. Depleted stockpiles mean prices stay tight for longer.
Invesco's research team thinks $80 a barrel is the floor for Brent the rest of this year unless flows through the Strait of Hormuz fully resume. Even after the strait reopens, the lag in restoring supply combined with low inventories points to sustained tightness.
Standard Chartered's Rajat Bhattacharya is still looking for a deal within weeks that could restore flows. He's framing the price swings as a buying opportunity, not a sign to step back.
The disruption isn't only oil. Liquefied natural gas - LNG, the gas shipped overseas - is running about a third higher than pre-war levels in Europe, with roughly 20% of the world's LNG supply currently shut off.
That feeds into fertilizer costs, then crop costs, then eventually grocery prices.
Higher oil for longer reshapes the inflation picture. The Fed has so far been willing to look through the energy shock, but a sustained $90 Brent would test that stance.
Energy supermajors like Exxon and Chevron also report Friday. Their numbers will give investors a clean read on how oil profits are tracking against the war's supply hit.
History rhymes here. Yardeni Research notes that during the 1956 Suez crisis, oil prices doubled and stocks fell, only to rebound to fresh highs once the canal reopened.
Trump scrapped a planned envoy trip to Pakistan over the weekend, citing what he called "tremendous infighting" inside Tehran's leadership. Iran has reportedly offered the U.S. a new deal to reopen the strait if nuclear talks get pushed to a later stage.
Until that deal lands, every headline out of the Gulf moves oil. Goldman just told investors to expect higher prices for longer.