Gas is more expensive. Oil has been stuck around $119 a barrel for weeks. Drivers are paying a national average of $4 per gallon at the pump.
The country is five weeks into a war with Iran. And somehow, consumers feel slightly better about the economy than they did a month ago.
The Conference Board's March reading came in at 91.8 - up from 91 in February and well above the 87.9 that economists predicted. But the details paint a messier picture.
How consumers view their situation today actually improved. That part of the index - tracking current jobs and business conditions - jumped 4.6 points to 123.3.
But when asked about the next six months, the outlook got worse. That forward-looking measure dropped 1.7 points to 70.9.
Dana Peterson, the Conference Board's chief economist, said current conditions gave the overall number a small lift while expectations for the road ahead pulled in the other direction.
A separate Labor Department report showed job openings held roughly steady at 6.9 million in February.
But hiring is drying up underneath. Restaurants and hotels pulled back on 211,000 openings and filled 178,000 fewer positions. Construction companies brought on 88,000 fewer workers.
Total hiring across the economy slowed to a rate not seen since the early pandemic shutdowns in spring 2020. Companies are keeping their current employees but aren't adding new ones - a pattern analysts have been calling "low hire, low fire."
February's payroll numbers already showed the economy shed 92,000 jobs. Friday's March report will tell investors whether that trend is picking up speed.
The Conference Board's survey found that inflation expectations jumped to a level not seen since August 2025.
The share of people who believe borrowing costs will keep rising over the next year surged from 34.9% in February to 42.4% in March.
Survey respondents wrote far more about fuel costs and the war than in previous months. Mentions of trade policy fell off significantly. The survey period ran through March 24 - more than three weeks into the conflict.
Friday's jobs report for March will be the next big signal. Economists expect moderate growth in payrolls and a steady unemployment rate - but those forecasts were set before the war's full weight showed up in the data.
The gap between how consumers feel right now and how they feel about the next six months is getting wider. For investors, that split tends to matter more than the headline number.
