The U.S. is not the only place where bond markets are flashing red. From Washington to Tokyo to Berlin to London, government borrowing costs just hit levels investors haven't seen in years. In some cases, ever.
The Numbers
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield - the rate the government pays to borrow money for 10 years - sat near 4.591% on Monday after touching a 15-month high earlier in the day. The 30-year was around 5.123%, and the 2-year, which moves with Fed policy, hovered near 4.075%.
The bigger story is overseas. Japan's 30-year government bond yield hit an all-time high based on data going back to 1999, while the 10-year German bund cracked levels last seen in May 2011.
The UK 10-year Gilt topped its July 2008 high, with the UK 30-year hitting its highest reading since March 1998.
When yields rise, bond prices fall, leaving investors holding existing bonds sitting on losses.
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What's Driving It
Three forces are stacking up. Talks between the U.S. and Iran have stalled, which means oil supply worries aren't going away soon, with Brent crude trading near $109 a barrel and WTI near $105.
Fresh U.S. data also showed price pressure starting to reach consumers again, making the Federal Reserve less likely to cut rates soon.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with G7 colleagues and central bankers in Paris on Monday, with fresh worries about inflation and public debt weighing on global markets.
ECB President Christine Lagarde was asked if she was worried about bond market swings. Her answer: "I always worry, that's my job."
What To Watch
Will Hobbs, chief investment officer at Brooks Macdonald, told CNBC that "inflation is going to be a tricky, annoying problem for central banks and bond investors." That's the read in one sentence.
The UK is also dealing with political pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which is adding to the yield spike in British debt.
Government bond yields set the floor for almost every other interest rate. When they rise, mortgages, car loans, and corporate borrowing all get more expensive.
A bond rout hitting four major economies at once does not stay in the bond market for long.
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