Wall Street's most upbeat oil call has Brent at $90. That isn't the bull case. That is the optimist case.
BofA's head of commodities, Francisco Blanch, set out three paths for the rest of the year. His good case keeps Brent near $90. His middle case lifts it to $100, and his worst case is $130 if Hormuz stays blocked into late 2026.
For context, BofA's March call had Brent near $77.50 for the year. Even the cheap case is now $13 a barrel higher.
A mid-year update like this is rare. Wall Street usually waits for end-of-year reviews to move a long-run oil call.
About 20 million barrels a day of crude and fuel move through the Strait of Hormuz. That is roughly a fifth of global oil supply.
The Strait is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. Traffic stopped weeks ago, and pipelines that route around it toward the Red Sea cannot make up the lost flow.
Nearly 200 million barrels have been pulled from stockpiles as a result. That is about half of last year's whole inventory build.
Brent has been trading above $100 a barrel. It also touched near $120 twice in March as traders baked a steady war premium into every contract.
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Blanch said the only path to lower prices runs through Hormuz. Supplies stay too tight for Brent to drop until the US and Iran stand down from the blockade.
That makes the war timeline the biggest factor in oil right now. Every week the blockade holds, more barrels leave inventories and the floor under prices rises with them.
For US drillers, high prices give names like Diamondback Energy and Devon Energy a cushion. They can hold output steady without bleeding cash.
BofA recently raised price targets for US oil producers by about 17% on average. The bank still expects Brent to drift back near $65 in 2027 if the war ends and the market flips to surplus.
The takeaway is plain. $90 oil keeps gas and diesel high through summer driving season, with refiners, airlines, and trucking firms the first to feel the squeeze.
US drivers tend to feel it at the pump within a few weeks of a major Brent move. Wallets often tighten on dining, travel, and big-ticket goods soon after.
That can drag on stocks tied to consumer spending. Watch retail, leisure, and auto names if Brent stays sticky near $100.
The cheap-oil scenarios investors used to plan around are not on the menu.
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