Ares Management just had its best first-quarter fundraising run ever, and the stock sold off anyway.
Ares is one of the biggest names in private credit, which is what investors call funds that lend directly to companies instead of those companies tapping public bond markets.
The pension funds and insurers that write checks to Ares - its limited partners - are giving the firm more money than ever, while public stock investors are doing the opposite.
After-tax realized income came in at $1.24 per share, short of the $1.38 Wall Street wanted. Fee-related earnings - the steady fee stream investors care about - also fell short.
This is a realization problem, not a demand problem.
Realizations are the cash Ares pulls out when it sells deals, and when dealmaking slows, that line slows with it. Slow dealmaking is the broader story across alternatives right now.
Fundraising is moving the other way, with Ares pulling in $30 billion of fresh capital in the quarter, up 46% from last year's already-record first quarter.
CEO Michael Arougheti said the firm is on track for another record fundraising year.
Of the $30 billion raised, $20.4 billion came through the credit segment, with another $6.2 billion going into real assets like real estate.
On the deployment side, Ares put $32.3 billion to work in the quarter, with most of it landing in U.S. and European direct lending, real estate, and alternative credit strategies.
Ares also got an acquisition tailwind. The firm closed its purchase of BlueCove in February, a London manager that runs systematic fixed income strategies, adding $5.5 billion in assets to the books.
Sitting on Ares' books at quarter end: $158.1 billion of dry powder - investor money the firm hasn't put to work yet, up 11% from a year ago.
Dry powder is fuel. When private credit deals start flowing again, that pile gets deployed into fees and, eventually, realizations.
Total assets under management hit $644.3 billion, up 18% on the year, with Ares targeting $750 billion by 2028.
The most interesting cut: perpetual capital - money the firm doesn't have to give back on a fixed schedule - now totals $215.3 billion, up 39% year over year, with about $70 billion of that parked in vehicles aimed at high-net-worth investors.
Ares has been opening the gates beyond pension funds, and the gates are pulling in money fast.
Two things matter from here. The first is whether dealmaking picks up in the back half, which is what turns dry powder into realizations and earnings beats.
The second is the high-net-worth pipeline, where, if retail capital keeps flowing at this pace, fee growth has a long runway even if realizations stay sluggish.
Private credit has been one of the fastest-growing corners of finance for years, with Ares the biggest pure-play stock in the space.
Shares fell about 2% on Friday after the report and are down roughly 27% on the year through Thursday, even as Ares declared a $1.35 quarterly dividend payable June 30.
Capital is still showing up. Now it has to start working.
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