The U.S. has had warships parked at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz for a month, turning away anything trying to leave or enter Iranian ports. It has mostly worked.
Today, that's about to get tested again. A Chinese-crewed tanker is heading for the strait.
The Rich Starry is a chemical and oil carrier that the U.S. sanctioned in 2023 for trading with Iran. It's set to attempt another Hormuz transit today.
The ship has tried this before. It turned back the last time it ran into the U.S. Navy.
The blockade started on April 13, with more than a dozen U.S. warships and hundreds of sailors enforcing it. Any vessel of any flag entering or leaving an Iranian port gets stopped.
In the first 24 hours, six ships turned around. By early May, U.S. forces had pushed back closer to 70 vessels, and Iran's oil exports had effectively stopped.
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Beijing has stayed mostly quiet through this. There's a reason.
About 10% of China's annual crude imports come from Iran, and over 90% of Iran's crude goes to Chinese refineries. The blockade puts both sides of that trade on pause.
For now, China is leaning on its stockpile. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently called Beijing an "unreliable partner" for sitting on oil rather than helping ease the global shortage.
The Foreign Ministry has called the blockade "a dangerous and irresponsible move" but stopped short of a direct response. Trump arrived in Beijing today for his first state visit since 2017, putting the blockade on the table just as the two leaders meet.
The Rich Starry's voyage matters less for what one ship does than for the signal China is sending. Pushing through is a quiet escalation, while turning back looks something like compliance.
Iran has also threatened to widen the chokehold to the Red Sea, the other route Gulf producers use to get oil out. If that happens, the conversation moves from one strait to two.
For oil markets, that's the line that turns a regional standoff into a global supply story. Investors are watching the next 48 hours.
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