Most real estate pros say 2026 is going to be mixed. But more of them see it getting better than worse.
The RCN Capital Investor Sentiment Index held at 101 for the quarter. That is a steady read from Q3 2025.
38% of real estate investors expect the 2026 housing market to improve.
The Sentiment Index tracks how real estate investors feel about the market. It polls more than 250 investors each quarter.
A reading of 100 is neutral. Above 100 means more investors are upbeat than sour.
At 101, the index is just barely on the upbeat side.
38% is not a majority. But 19% of the same pool expect the market to get worse.
That leaves about 43% who expect flat. Put together, the group leans slightly up, not down.
That is a real shift from a year ago, when most investors were worried about a deeper drop.
Fix-and-flip investors are more upbeat than the group as a whole. 52% of them see 2026 getting better.
That tracks with how these investors buy and sell. Flippers need a steady flow of homes and a decent spread between buy and sell prices.
A slow, stable market with flat prices can still work for them. It just takes more work per deal.
Rental investors are less upbeat. Only 26% see 2026 getting better.
Rental owners care about two things most. Rent prices and cap rates, which is the yield they get on each property.
Both have been under pressure from high mortgage rates and slow rent growth. That is why this group feels the strain more.
Flippers make money on each deal. Steady deal flow is enough for them.
Rental owners make money over years. Slow rent growth and high rates squeeze them more than flippers.
The split in mood is a clean read on how different parts of the market are feeling.
Real estate investor mood tends to lead home price moves by a few months. When pros turn upbeat, prices often firm up soon after.
101 is not a big upbeat reading. But it is not a drop either.
That points to a year of slow, mixed moves, not a big shift in either direction.
Most investors name rates as the biggest swing factor. A sharp drop in rates would lift both flipper and rental investor mood fast.
A steady or rising rate picture would do the opposite. The split between the two groups might stay wide.
A big share of the surveyed pros plan to buy more property in 2026. That is the clearest signal of their mood.
Sellers are a smaller share. Most pros are set up to hold for years, not flip in one year.
The overall tilt is toward buying. That is a positive signal for market activity, if not for price gains.
The sample covers more than 250 pros in the trade. That is a small slice of the full US market, but it is a useful one.
These are buyers who move fast and spot trends early. Their mood often shifts before broader housing data does.
A steady 101 reading from them is a steady read on the full market.
Investor mood does not drive every deal. Buyers and sellers still set the price in each local market.
But a steady reading from pros is a soft positive for the year.
The base case for 2026 just got a little clearer.
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