Spring is supposed to be when the housing market wakes up. This year it hit snooze.
Existing home sales fell to a nine-month low in March. That is right when the biggest selling season of the year was supposed to start. Buyers took one look at rates, one look at the war, and sat on their hands.
Mortgage rates slipped below 6% seven weeks ago. Buyers who locked in that week feel like they won the lottery.
Everyone else watched rates spike to 6.46% earlier in April as the Iran war rattled markets. The ceasefire pulled rates back to 6.30% by mid-April. But the damage to the spring selling season was already done.
A top housing economist summed it up: "Lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers."
A homeowner in Albuquerque listed his place in November for $689,000. He just accepted $620,000. That is below his asking price. And below what he paid for it.
His take: "If we can walk away with zero, we're fine."
That is the mood in most of the country right now. Sellers who bought in 2022 or 2023 are not chasing gains. They just want to break even and move on.
Springfield, Massachusetts is running the opposite playbook. One renovated family home listed at $299,000 drew three offers in eight days. It sold above asking to a first-time buyer.
Springfield is what the National Association of Realtors calls a "strong seller market." Affordable prices. Low inventory. Buyers who got priced out of Boston.
The median US home price hit a record $408,800 in March. But that national number hides a patchwork underneath. Some cities are on fire. Most are stuck.
The lockup effect explains part of the supply problem. Homeowners with 3% mortgages from 2021 do not want to swap them for 6.30% mortgages. So they stay put. And inventory stays tight.
Rates can fall. Prices can soften. But the pandemic-era mortgage lockup is a bigger, deeper problem. One Treasury rally will not fix it.
Until it unlocks, the spring market will keep looking a lot like the winter one.